How V3 works — plain English
V2 had a foundational error: it priced the plant against SPP wholesale electricity. Real industrial customers in Lincoln are billed on flat retail rates with a summer demand ratchet and power-factor penalties. V3 fixes the model. Hero number for the Mid scenario is now sourced from the verified LES 2026 tariff.
V2 → V3 correction
What V2 got wrong: assumed the plant could buy energy at the SPP wholesale market price. Only LLP-with-Market-Energy customers can — and that rate requires ≥20 MW load + 115 kV transmission + own-substation. A 1,300 kW plant is billed on standard retail tariffs.
What that meant for the V2 hero: the "$96.9k from energy arbitrage" was largely fictional. Under flat retail, summer/winter energy delta is only $0.001/kWh — about $1,850/yr arbitrage savings. V2 was inflated.
The verified LES 2026 retail tariff (all 5 classes)
| Rate | Customer $/mo | Demand + Facilities $/kW | Summer ¢/kWh | Winter ¢/kWh | Excess kVAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSD-11 Secondary | $25 | $21.75 | 2.77¢ | 2.50¢ | — |
| GSD-12 Primary | $25 | $19.50 | 2.70¢ | 2.45¢ | — |
| LLP-15 Secondary | $450 | $25.17 | 2.55¢ | 2.45¢ | $2.60/kVAR |
| LLP-16 Primary | $450 | $23.15 | 2.42¢ | 2.35¢ | $2.60/kVAR |
| LLP-39 35 kV | $450 | $19.65 | 2.42¢ | 2.35¢ | $2.60/kVAR |
Verified against the LES 2026 Rate Schedules Final PDF, effective 2026-01-01.
The 65% summer demand ratchet — the single biggest mechanic
Every monthly bill at LES has a "billing demand" that's the higher of (a) the current month's actual peak, or (b) 65% of the highest 30-minute peak in June–September of the preceding 11 months. This is the ratchet.
Worked example for a Mid finisher on LLP-15:
- It's a hot July afternoon. Operators fire up everything at 7am — total 1,200 kW for 30 minutes. July bill: 1,200 kW × $25.17 = $30,204 demand.
- Plant reduces winter peak to 400 kW. But ratchet floor = 0.65 × 1,200 = 780 kW. Winter bill demand = max(400, 780) = 780 kW × $25.17 = $19,633.
- That extra 380 kW × $25.17 × 8 winter months = $76,517 in non-productive demand charges all because of one bad July afternoon.
Why software (Tier 1) is worth so much: the greedy scheduler's main job is preventing a summer ratchet event. Stopping one bad day pays for 11 months of cheaper bills.
Power factor & excess kVAR
LES bills LLP customers (Rates 15/16/39) $2.60 per kVAR above the 0.93 PF threshold. Heavy SCR rectifiers typically draw at 0.75 PF. For a 1,200 kW load:
- Actual reactive: 1,200 × tan(arccos(0.75)) ≈ 1,058 kVAR
- Allowed: 1,200 × 0.39523 ≈ 474 kVAR
- Excess: ~584 kVAR × $2.60 ≈ $1,518/month = $18,224/year
A 700 kVAR detuned capacitor bank ($18k capex) eliminates this in ~12 months. GSD customers don't get charged for excess kVAR.
Three stacked tiers — how the hero number is built
| Tier | What | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Software | Scheduler caps summer peak ≤ 700 kW → ratchet floor drops, all 8 winter months cheaper | $0 |
| Tier 2 — + Aux loads | Tier 1 + continuous-load shifting (chiller, DI/RO, compressed air) — 60% to off-peak | $12k (− $2.4k SEP grant) |
| Tier 3 — + Hardware | Tier 2 + 700 kVAR capacitor bank + IGBT rectifier retrofit on primary line | $68k |
The live dashboard shows each tier's savings as you toggle scenario + rate class. Sensitivity panel below lets you flex every assumption.
Rate class comparison & sensitivity
The dashboard's "Rate class comparison" matrix shows every scenario × every rate class. Click any cell to make it the active context. ⚠ = the scenario doesn't meet that rate class's eligibility (e.g., Small below 400 kW summer peak doesn't qualify for LLP-15) but the math is still computed for hypothetical comparison.
The "Sensitivity analysis" section exposes 12 sliders for the assumptions a skeptic will challenge: summer peak target, power factor baseline, rectifier efficiencies, shiftable continuous-load fraction, plating lines, working days, ratchet multiplier, capacitor and IGBT capex, SEP grant eligibility. Drag any slider; the (Mid scenario) hero updates instantly. The tornado chart ranks which assumption matters most.
V3 lands
Mid scenario on LLP-15 (typical mid-size finisher, secondary distribution):
Combined Tier 1+2+3 savings against realistic current-state baseline. ~6-month combined payback on $80k capex.
Live numbers update on the dashboard as you toggle scenario, rate class, and sensitivity sliders.
What's next (V4)
- SPP demand response participation — coordinate directly with LES (Nebraska is a public-power state; third-party aggregators face FERC 719 opt-out restrictions). SPP-managed curtailment programs historically pay $50-150/kW/year. The SPP LMP data and XGBoost model from V1/V2 are parked in the database, ready to size demand-response value.
- Battery / thermal energy storage — when capex permits. 200 kW × 4 hr battery decouples grid draw from process load.
- Feedback button on the dashboard — let viewers challenge assumptions directly. Scheduled for a follow-up build.
Back to the dashboard: index.html